Day: March 20, 2024

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Bitcoin mining stocks faced losses this week amid a broader downturn in Bitcoin prices. Despite this multi-day correction phase, the overall bullish sentiment for digital assets remains strong.

A significant worry in the market revolves around the impending Bitcoin halving event, slated for late April when the block height reaches 840,000. This event reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half, thus slowing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated.

Nejc Kržan, Head of NiceX Exchange, noted that many large mining farms are converting to fiat amid the anticipation of a challenging period post-halving.

In a recent comprehensive analysis by JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), the financial giant revisited the operational and financial trends of the bitcoin mining industry amidst the ongoing crypto market selloff. The report assessed the performance and strategic positioning of leading mining companies, including Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR), CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), Iris Energy Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN), Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA), and Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), projecting a positive outlook for the sector in 2024.

JPMorgan equity analysts report that the broader mining industry saw its most substantial quarterly gross profit since the second quarter of 2022 during the final quarter of 2023, indicating a strong recovery. The report expects industry-wide gross profits to rise in the first quarter of 2024, followed by a downturn in the second quarter as the block reward is halved, reflecting the cyclical nature of mining industry profitability.

Marathon Digital emerged as the industry’s top performer in 2023, with JPMorgan highlighting its capacity expansions and Bitcoin output. The report noted that Marathon Digital added the most capacity and mined more bitcoin than any other operator in their coverage universe.

Looking ahead, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark are identified as key players poised for strong growth in 2024, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The report also highlighted Cipher’s competitive edge due to its low power costs per coin mined in the fourth quarter of 2023, contrasting with Marathon’s higher costs. However, it commended Marathon for its operational efficiency, driven by scale and lean operations.

In terms of financing activities, the report revealed that the five miners in JPMorgan’s coverage universe issued over $2 billion in equity via ATM offerings in 2023, indicating a significant increase from the previous year.

Overall, JPMorgan’s report maintains an optimistic view of the mining industry’s resilience and adaptability, expecting miner profitability to rise in the first quarter of 2024 before declining in the second quarter due to the halving.

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The journey towards institutional adoption has long been a target for cryptocurrency proponents, aiming to bring a new level of legitimacy to the asset class and potentially drive prices higher. The launch of several spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January marked a historic milestone for the sector, paving the way for wider adoption. However, a survey conducted by the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DCAFP) in December indicated that crypto adoption was already on the rise before the ETFs’ launch.

The survey, conducted in partnership with Franklin Templeton Digital Assets, revealed that 59% of financial professionals, including 78 financial advisors managing client portfolios, actively recommended crypto to clients. Notably, over 7% of advisors recommended crypto to all clients, while 29% recommended it to more than half of their clients. The majority of advisors (81%) suggested allocating 1% to 5% of assets to crypto, with a smaller fraction recommending higher allocations.

In terms of client holdings, 83% of financial advisors found that 10% to 49% of their clients invested in crypto, indicating a notable level of interest among investors. Furthermore, 41% of advisors not currently recommending crypto expressed plans to do so, with a significant portion intending to allocate to crypto within the year.

Despite the retail-driven nature of the market, institutions are showing a growing appetite for crypto assets, according to Mathew McDermot, head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs. McDermot highlighted the recent surge in institutional interest, attributing it to factors like the launch of spot BTC ETFs, which triggered a “psychological shift” in investor sentiment and could pave the way for the tokenization of assets.

McDermot emphasized the importance of regulatory clarity in facilitating institutional adoption, noting that the SEC’s approval of spot BTC ETFs marked a significant moment for the market, particularly in the U.S. He pointed out the growing volumes in CME Group’s derivatives marketplace as evidence of institutional interest.

Offering Bitcoin in ETF form has made it more accessible to the masses and removed barriers associated with storing and transacting with cryptocurrencies. McDermot highlighted the enhanced investment protection provided by ETFs, making them a more user-friendly option for institutional investors.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs is focused on developing proofs of concept around tokenization and leveraging blockchain technology to better serve clients interested in digital assets. McDermot envisions a “tokenization continuum,” starting with more traditional financial products like Treasuries and stablecoins before expanding to more complex markets like real estate private equity.

McDermot sees promise in blockchain technology, citing its potential to de-risk the market, improve operational efficiency, and enhance liquidity management. While crypto presents intriguing opportunities, he believes the underlying technology holds significant potential for transforming financial markets.

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The Open Network Foundation, the entity behind developing the TON blockchain powering Telegram’s new advertising platform, has unveiled a community incentive program worth $115 million. This initiative will see the allocation of 30 million Toncoin (TON) tokens to reward the community.

As outlined in the announcement on March 20, the incentives will be distributed across four key areas: $38 million for token mining and user incentives, $22 million for airdrops, $15 million for The League developer ecosystem, and $40 million for liquidity pool boosts. Developers stated that the distribution of the 30 million Toncoin will commence on April 1 in monthly seasons, to facilitate a straightforward journey from Telegram user to on-chain participant.

During an initial pilot season, the TON Foundation disbursed 650,000 TON tokens ($2.6 million) through Liquidity Pool boosts and plans to allocate 550,000 TON tokens ($2.2 million) among winning projects in The League Pilot on March 31. Jack Booth, Director of Marketing at TON Foundation, remarked on the positive response from the community during the pilot season, indicating readiness for further engagement.

The Telegram Ad Platform, operating on the TON blockchain, was recently launched in March 2024. This platform enables Telegram channel owners globally to monetize their channels by selling advertising space and sharing revenue in TON tokens.

Originally developed by Telegram, the TON token’s development was halted in May 2020 following a legal dispute with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Despite this setback, Telegram remains a significant player in the messaging app landscape, boasting over 900 million users globally and ranking as the world’s fourth-largest messaging app.

In recent developments, Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov revealed plans for the company to pursue profitability, with considerations for an initial public offering (IPO). Durov also hinted at potentially offering priority access to loyal users for the firm’s IPO subscription, taking inspiration from Reddit’s approach. Over the past year, TON has seen a notable surge of close to 75% in value, currently trading at $4.12.

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As the broader cryptocurrency market experiences a downturn, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing declines, Solana’s price has also pulled back significantly. The token has retreated to a critical support level at $164, leading to discussions about whether Solana (SOL) can maintain its upward trajectory or if further declines are imminent.

The potential for a deeper decline in Solana’s price is exacerbated by news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating crypto companies as part of its Ethereum probe. The heightened regulatory concerns could amplify the pullback in SOL price.

Solana has been a focal point for investors recently, especially after its price surged past $200 for the first time since November 2021. Over the weekend, Solana experienced a significant surge in network activity, surpassing Ethereum in total trading volume.

On March 16, Solana’s trading volume reached $3.52 billion, surpassing Ethereum by $1.1 billion. This surge was largely driven by increased demand for Solana-based memecoins, with the newly launched Book of Meme (BOME) memecoin achieving a market capitalization of $1.45 billion in just 56 hours.

Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) sector has also experienced substantial growth, with its total value locked (TVL) increasing by over 80% in the past month. This surge has propelled Solana’s DeFi TVL to its highest point in two years, placing it among the top five DeFi networks by TVL.

Despite the recent decrease in trade volume, Solana’s market capitalization has reached $91.56 billion. The cryptocurrency has also seen a 9.05% rise in open interest to $3.20 billion, although short traders have been dominant in liquidations as they seek to mitigate losses from the ongoing price rally.

In other developments, the Solana community has begun to voice concerns about meme coin presales, which have become more frequent and dubious. In these presales, crypto traders often send large sums of money to unfamiliar individuals in the hope of getting in early on the next big meme coin like BONK, WIF, or BOME.

Following the multi-billion dollar surges of several Solana-based meme coins over the past three months—a trend that has thrust the blockchain back into the spotlight—many crypto influencers are capitalizing on the atmosphere of fear of missing out (FOMO). They are offering early, discounted allocations of certain meme coins before their launch to traders who send SOL to the promoters’ wallets.

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Robinhood has rolled out its crypto wallet for Android users globally, offering a secure way to manage various cryptocurrencies and stay informed about market trends directly from their Android devices.

The launch of the Robinhood Wallet for Android is a strategic move to accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies while enhancing Robinhood’s reputation as a trustworthy and user-friendly platform for crypto transactions.

This release is particularly significant given Android’s dominant 70% market share in the global mobile operating system market. Android users can now securely hold their private keys and take full control of their digital assets through the Robinhood Wallet.

With the Robinhood Wallet, users can store, manage, send, and receive a variety of cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Arbitrum, Polygon, Optimism, and Base.

Moreover, the wallet offers features such as cryptocurrency swapping, direct funding from Robinhood balances or other wallets/exchanges, and access to trending tokens and crypto news.

Johann Kerbrat, General Manager of Robinhood Crypto, highlighted the significance of this launch, stating:

“Launching Robinhood Wallet on Android is a significant step forward in our commitment to making crypto more accessible and seamlessly integrated into daily life for millions of people around the world.”

Key Features for Android Users

Android users can now enjoy the following features with the Robinhood Wallet:

Hold private keys and maintain control over digital assets.

Manage a diverse range of cryptocurrencies across multiple networks.

Swap cryptocurrencies on Ethereum, Polygon, and Arbitrum networks.

Fund the wallet directly from Robinhood balances or other sources.

Stay updated on trending tokens and the latest crypto news within the app.

Global Expansion and Future Plans

In December, Robinhood introduced its crypto product for Europe, allowing European customers to trade over 25 tokens, including popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Solana, and Polkadot.

Looking ahead, Robinhood plans to expand its token selection further and introduce features such as staking.

Research firm Bernstein recently issued an “outperform” rating for Robinhood Markets, with analyst Gautam Chhugani predicting a significant increase in cryptocurrency trade volume at the online brokerage over the next two years.

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In the wake of heightened market volatility, the price of Bitcoin has surged back above the $63,500 threshold. Over the past 24 hours, the crypto landscape witnessed a tumultuous period, with the liquidation of more than $150 million in leveraged bitcoin positions.

After dipping to a recent low of $69,900, Bitcoin’s value rebounded, showing a resilient increase of over 1% within the same period.  As of 7:50 a.m. ET, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at $63,559, according to data from The Block’s Price Page.

The volatility in price action led to significant liquidations across both long and short positions on centralized exchanges. CoinGlass data revealed that more than $78 million in bitcoin longs and over $72 million in shorts were liquidated, totaling over $150 million in liquidations.

While Bitcoin saw a rebound, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, experienced a modest 0.3% increase, reaching $3,262 at 7:48 a.m. ET. Conversely, SOL, the native coin of the Solana network, recorded a decline of over 2% during the same period, according to The Block’s Prices Page.

The broader crypto market witnessed a total of over $275 million in liquidated long positions over the past day, contributing to a cumulative figure of $428 million in liquidations across various centralized exchanges.

Liquidations occur when traders’ positions are automatically closed due to insufficient funds to cover losses. This scenario arises when market movements go against the trader’s position, resulting in the exhaustion of their initial margin or collateral.

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The countdown to Bitcoin’s next halving event, scheduled to take place in just a month, is underway. As estimated by The Block’s halving countdown, the event is set for April 20, where miners’ block rewards will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Approximately 4,450 blocks remain until the anticipated date, based on Bitcoin’s average block generation time of 10 minutes. If the current pace holds, April 20 around 8 a.m. EDT marks the potential moment for the halving event, reducing miners’ rewards per block by half.

Bitcoin halvings occur automatically every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years, in a programmed event. Following each halving, miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins as a reward for their mining efforts, although they still earn transaction fees per block as usual.

With three previous halving events in Bitcoin’s history, the block reward inflation has decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in 2012, then to 12.5 BTC in 2016, and most recently to 6.25 BTC on May 11, 2020. Ultimately, there will only be 21 million bitcoins in existence, with the halving events set to continue until the last bitcoin is projected to be mined around 2140, after which miners will solely earn from transaction fees.

The Market Impact of Bitcoin Halvings

Bitcoin halvings historically correlate with significant price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Although not directly causal, these events often precede notable bull runs in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Jean-David Péquignot, Head of Markets at OSL, remarked on the positive impact of Bitcoin halvings on its price, attributing it to heightened optimism among crypto investors due to the event’s reinforcement of Bitcoin’s scarcity.

Furthermore, a recent report from ETC Group suggests that the forthcoming halving may not be fully priced into the current market. Their analysis indicates a potential increase in Bitcoin’s equilibrium price, projecting figures as high as $215,000 by the end of the next Bitcoin epoch in 2028.

Despite recent fluctuations, with Bitcoin sliding from $68,136 to $61,506 and eventually rebounding to $63,994, analysts at Bernstein view the dip as a buying opportunity ahead of the impending halving event.

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