Day: April 24, 2024

This post was originally published on this site

As the Dollar Index (DXY) experiences a recent pullback, crypto traders are banking on continued dollar weakness to fuel a resurgence in Bitcoin (BTC), although some banks hold a contrary view.

Recent trends have seen Bitcoin trading within the $60,000 to $70,000 range since mid-March, with the dollar’s bounce on the DXY contributing to this stabilization. However, a reversal in the DXY’s trajectory, coupled with expectations of a weaker dollar, has reignited optimism among Bitcoin bulls.

Mike Alfred, a value investor and managing partner at Alpine Fox LP, anticipates a turnaround in the DXY, projecting a move back towards 102-103, which he believes will coincide with a bitcoin rally towards $90,000 in the short term. While some banks foresee continued dollar strength, others see signs of a potential peak, with projections ranging between 107 and 110 for the DXY.

Societe Generale’s Cross Asset Research Team and Scotiabank are among those forecasting a resilient dollar, citing expectations of a prolonged hold on interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the possibility of a U.S.-China trade war escalation, with proposed tariff hikes on Chinese imports, could further bolster the dollar, according to Barclays.

Despite divergent opinions, crypto traders remain focused on the potential impact of a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with increased risk-taking and a favorable environment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. As such, traders are closely monitoring shifts in the DXY and geopolitical developments that could influence the dollar’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site

This Friday, Deribit, a leading derivatives exchange, braces for a substantial expiration of cryptocurrency options, totaling over $9.4 billion, with bitcoin options comprising the majority at $6.35 billion.

The upcoming expiry has sparked notable activity in the options market, particularly for Bitcoin, where the put-call ratio stands at 0.68, signaling an increased interest in put options compared to calls. In contrast, ether options, valued at $3.08 billion, exhibit a lower put-call ratio of 0.49, suggesting a more bullish sentiment among traders.

Amidst this activity, attention is drawn to the largest open interest in year-end expiry calls, notably at a $100,000 strike price for Bitcoin. This optimistic outlook reflects a belief among derivatives players in Bitcoin’s potential to surpass this milestone by December.

QCP Capital analysts interpret this surge in options activity as investors positioning themselves for a post-halving resurgence in bitcoin’s value, anticipating a breakout from its two-month consolidation period.

Standard Chartered’s recent analyst note aligns with this sentiment, projecting a year-end target price of $150,000 for bitcoin and $8,000 for ether.

Options, as derivative contracts, offer traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe. The distribution of put and call options is often used to gauge market sentiment, with put options typically indicating bearishness and call options suggesting bullishness.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site

S&P Global Ratings has indicated that the proposed regulations in the United States may lead to a shift in the stablecoin landscape, potentially undermining the dominance of Tether’s USDT.

The regulatory framework, if approved, could grant banks a competitive advantage by capping stablecoin issuance for non-banking institutions at $10 billion, according to S&P’s report released on Wednesday.

The prospect of regulatory clarity is expected to incentivize traditional financial institutions to enter the stablecoin market, a development that could erode Tether’s market share, S&P stated.

The proposed stablecoin bill, introduced by U.S. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand, aims to establish guidelines for stablecoin operations within the country. Stablecoins, a form of cryptocurrency tied to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, hold significant importance within crypto markets.

While the U.S. dollar remains the preferred peg for stablecoins, the absence of specific U.S. regulations for most stablecoin issuers may change with the introduction of the Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act.

Analyst Andrew O’Neill highlighted that the passage of the bill could expedite institutional blockchain innovation, particularly in areas like tokenization and digital bond issuances involving on-chain payments. This could create opportunities for banks as stablecoin issuers and potentially reduce Tether’s dominance in the global stablecoin market.

S&P emphasized that Tether’s USDT, with a market capitalization of $110 billion, faces potential challenges under the proposed legislation, as it is issued by a non-U.S. entity and would not qualify as a permitted payment stablecoin. Consequently, U.S. entities may face restrictions on holding or transacting in USDT, potentially dampening its demand.

Additionally, the removal of the SEC’s requirement for custodians to report digital assets on their balance sheet could spur the emergence of new digital asset custody providers, fostering greater competition in the market.

Despite Tether’s substantial market presence, S&P has previously criticized USDT for its perceived shortcomings in fulfilling its primary function of maintaining a stable value.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site

Block, the parent company of Square and Cash App, unveiled a new initiative today enabling merchants utilizing Square’s services to convert a portion of their daily sales into Bitcoin.

Rolling out initially in the U.S., the feature allows Square sellers to transfer 1-10% of their daily sales to their personal Cash App accounts, where the amount will automatically convert into Bitcoin by the day’s end. Merchants will receive confirmation of the conversion once the transaction is finalized.

This bitcoin conversion feature will gradually become available to all sole proprietors or single-member LLCs in the coming months. Block will levy a 1% fee on every conversion made by the seller. Furthermore, merchants have the flexibility to send Bitcoin to other wallets or sell them at their convenience directly from their Cash App accounts.

In a statement, Block emphasized its belief that Bitcoin serves as a tool for economic empowerment, offering individuals, including business owners, access to a global monetary system. The company highlighted that many Square sellers have expressed interest in bitcoin, viewing it as a means for long-term savings and diversification of their business assets.

When questioned about sellers’ conversion habits and average returns, Block stated that it had recently piloted the Bitcoin conversion feature with a select group of merchants and lacked definitive data on this aspect.

Block has prioritized simplifying the process of purchasing Bitcoin across its platforms. For instance, the company integrated its self-custodial wallet Bitkey with Cash App and Coinbase, facilitating seamless Bitcoin trading for users.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently shared insights in an investor note, envisioning a significant drop of 50% in Bitcoin’s volatility alongside increasing institutional involvement leading up to the 2028 halving.

Hougan’s analysis points to Bitcoin’s historical patterns, notably its surge to a new all-time high just weeks before the 2024 halving. He anticipates this trend to persist post-halving, propelling Bitcoin’s value upward, much like its ascent from a modest $13 valuation during its initial halving in 2012.

Reaffirming previous forecasts, Hougan remains confident in Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a $250,000 valuation in the years ahead.

He attributes this sustained growth to Bitcoin’s growing recognition within the financial landscape, particularly following the debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have witnessed remarkable performance since their launch.

Institutional Impact

Highlighting the transformative effect of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan underscores their role in attracting a fresh wave of institutional investors. These entities, including financial advisors and large financial institutions, are known for their disciplined approach to trading, which contrasts with the speculative behavior of retail investors that has historically characterized Bitcoin markets.

Hougan predicts that the influx of institutional capital through Bitcoin ETFs will contribute significantly to the projected 50% reduction in Bitcoin’s volatility by the next halving.

He envisions a future where Bitcoin becomes a standard component in diversified investment portfolios, potentially constituting 5% or more of allocations. This projection reflects a growing confidence in Bitcoin’s maturation and reduced price fluctuations.

$200 Billion AUM

Hougan anticipates that institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs could surpass $200 billion, driven by increased market accessibility and deeper financial integration. This influx of capital is expected to enhance market stability and cement Bitcoin’s status as a mainstream financial asset.

While acknowledging the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments, including market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, Hougan paints a picture of a future where Bitcoin achieves widespread institutional adoption and emerges as a staple in investment portfolios, fundamentally reshaping market dynamics by the 2028 halving.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site

Hong Kong is gearing up to debut its spot bitcoin and ether exchange traded funds (ETFs) on April 30, as announced by three asset managers on Wednesday.

This move positions Hong Kong as a trailblazer in Asia, becoming the first in the region to embrace cryptocurrency products as mainstream investment tools. The regulatory green light from the Securities and Futures Commission, as indicated on the Hong Kong markets watchdog’s website, underscores the city’s commitment to fostering a conducive environment for digital asset investment.

While mainland China maintains a ban on cryptocurrency, Hong Kong is actively positioning itself as a global digital asset hub, a strategic move aimed at enhancing its status as a financial epicenter. Over the past decade, Hong Kong has seen the presence of several leading international crypto exchanges and funds, although regulatory requirements have sometimes led to fluctuations in their operations.

The approval of these new products in Hong Kong follows closely on the heels of the United States’ introduction of its inaugural ETFs tracking spot bitcoin just three months ago. The U.S. ETFs have already witnessed significant traction, with approximately $12 billion in net inflows, contributing to a notable surge in bitcoin’s value earlier this year.crypto 

China Asset Management, Harvest Fund Management, and Bosera Asset Management, alongside local cryptocurrency firm Hashkey, are spearheading the launch of these ETFs in Hong Kong, with a target date of April 30. Against the backdrop of bitcoin’s impressive 50% year-to-date appreciation and its record-breaking high of $73,803 in March, the cryptocurrency was trading around $65,000 on Wednesday.

Featured Image: Freepik

Please See Disclaimer

This post was originally published on this site