Category: Cryptocurrency

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Recent data from analytics firm Santiment indicates a notable shift in sentiment within the crypto community, signaling a growing bearish inclination.

The sentiment within the crypto community regarding the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price appears to be turning bearish, according to metrics derived from social media activity. This trend, historically observed, often coincides with market bottoms.

As American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski famously remarked, “The masses are always wrong. Wisdom is doing everything the crowd does not do.” This adage holds true in the realm of cryptocurrency, where a burgeoning bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin (BTC) suggests that the current downtrend may be nearing its end.

Santiment, a blockchain analytics platform, noted in a recent market insights report that prices tend to move inversely to the expectations of the majority of traders. According to their analysis, the market could potentially bottom out either just before or shortly after the upcoming halving, anticipated within the next two days.

Santiment’s Social Trends indicator, which monitors discussions across platforms like Telegram, Reddit, and 4Chan, has revealed a decline in mentions related to “bull market” or “bull cycle” since late March. Conversely, there has been a steady increase in references to “bear market” or “bear cycle.”

The decline in mentions of phrases like “buy the dip” indicates a waning sense of optimism, known in crypto circles as “hopium,” among retail investors. Historically, such a decline has often signaled the conclusion of downtrends.

Bitcoin has faced various pressures this month, including diminishing prospects of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and U.S. tax payment deadlines. These factors have contributed to a 14% decline in its price, with the leading cryptocurrency briefly dropping below $60,000 before rebounding to around $61,200 at the time of writing.

With Bitcoin’s blockchain set to undergo its fourth mining reward halving, reducing the per-block BTC emission by 50% to 3.125 BTC, concerns about a further price decline have been raised by some analysts, including those at JPMorgan. However, the prevailing consensus remains bullish over the long term.

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In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, timing is everything. A recent example highlights the missed opportunities faced by some traders, particularly one long-time Dogecoin investor.

This investor, whose wallet had been accumulating DOGE since 2013, made a crucial decision to sell their tokens in late 2023, just before a significant price surge. Let’s delve into the details.

Initially investing a modest $146.87 in late 2013, the wallet amassed over 274,000 DOGE. Throughout 2014, further investments totaling around $5,000 were made, culminating in a final investment of $195.61 in early 2015.

During the subsequent years of dormancy, DOGE experienced a meteoric rise, particularly in 2021, fueled by social media hype and Elon Musk’s endorsements. At its peak, the wallet’s holdings soared to over $4 million.

However, the crypto market downturn in 2022 and 2023 saw DOGE’s value plummet by over 90%. Despite signs of recovery, the wallet’s owner chose to liquidate all tokens on Oct. 28, 2023, generating proceeds of $370,000.

Unfortunately, this timing proved suboptimal, as DOGE rallied soon after. Year to date, DOGE has surged over 60%, and since the sale date, it has soared more than 120%, reaching a peak of 23 cents in 2024.

Had the wallet held onto its tokens, it would have garnered an additional $450,000 in gains. Selling at the 2024 peak could have resulted in total proceeds of $1.25 million, underscoring the missed opportunity for significant profit.

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Aptos Labs, creators of the Aptos layer-1 blockchain, announced a strategic collaboration with Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Brevan Howard, and South Korean telecommunications giant SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM) to provide institutional access to decentralized finance.

The partnership introduces Aptos Ascend, a comprehensive suite of institutional solutions facilitating regulatory compliance, privacy in transactions and accounts, and streamlined know-your-customer  processes.

In response to the growing demand for DeFi integration among large institutions, various layer 1 blockchain platforms, including Avalanche and NEAR, have pursued similar enterprise partnerships.

Utilizing Microsoft Azure and Azure OpenAI services, Aptos Ascend leverages cutting-edge technology to deliver financial solutions.

Brevan Howard will leverage its industry expertise to explore digital asset management opportunities for institutions and their clients, with support from Boston Consulting Group in implementing these solutions.

Mo Shaikh, co-founder and CEO of Aptos Labs, highlighted the collaborative effort’s goal of providing financial institutions with a secure, compliant, and scalable gateway to DeFi on the Aptos platform.

Aptos previously announced its utilization of Microsoft’s infrastructure to introduce innovative AI and blockchain-powered solutions, such as the Aptos Assistant chatbot.

Founded by former Meta(NASDAQ:META) employees, Aptos Labs continues to innovate at the intersection of AI and blockchain technology.

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Fantasy, a crypto trading card game allowing users to trade crypto influencers as cards, has launched on Blast mainnet. The project garnered $600,000 in funding in February.

Fantasy, the crypto trading card game, is now live on Blast mainnet after a successful testnet phase. Users can trade crypto influencers portrayed as trading cards on the app, with influencers earning a 1.5% cut each time their cards are traded.

The project secured $600,000 in funding from Alliance DAO, Manifold Trading, Fabric Ventures, and angel investors in February. Notable angel investors include Santiago Santos from former ParaFi Capital, Bryan Pellegrino from LayerZero Labs, and the pseudonymous NFT influencer known as “money.”

Fantasy is also offering a points airdrop based on activity on social media platform X and on-chain metrics from several blockchains, including Blast.

During the testnet phase, Fantasy gained significant traction with influencers like Ansem driving interest. Ansem’s trading cards generated substantial testnet ETH trading volume, resulting in rewards of testnet ETH. The project’s success on mainnet will depend on its ability to sustain similar momentum.

Additionally, Fantasy allows users to participate in competitions using five of their cards. During the testnet phase, over 23,800 users engaged in such competitions, with a total of 75,000 registered users.

Fantasy operates on Blast, a Layer 2 network on Ethereum launched on mainnet in February. Blast aims to offer a native-yield model for ether and stablecoins, providing 4% interest for ether and 5% for stablecoins. The network was developed by Tieshun Roquerre, founder of the NFT marketplace Blur.

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Solana-based decentralized betting platform Parcl has experienced a significant decline in total value locked (TVL), losing approximately 40% since early April, as reported by DefiLlama data. Other Solana-based airdrop tokens, including W and TNSR, have also witnessed notable declines in value.

Since its airdrop snapshot on April 3, Parcl has witnessed approximately $74 million exiting the protocol, marking a sharp decline from $184.5 million to $110.69 million in TVL within about two weeks. The platform distributed native Parcl (PRCL) tokens to eligible users following the snapshot, with its initial TVL dropping significantly post-airdrop.

The airdrop distributed 80 million PRCL tokens initially valued at $0.8255 each, but the token’s value swiftly plummeted to a low of $0.45 before rebounding to $0.5294 at the time of publication. Launched in February 2023, Parcl enables users to trade on assets reflecting major city housing markets through decentralized betting.

While Parcl did not respond to inquiries from The Block, the mass withdrawal from the platform coincides with weak performances of other Solana-based airdropped tokens. For instance, Wormhole’s W token has seen a 56.4% decline since its debut, and Tensor’s TNSR token has lost half its value post-airdrop.

Despite these setbacks, Solana projects continue to conduct airdrop events, with decentralized exchange Drift and Zeta Markets announcing plans for token distributions. Solana itself has grappled with congestion issues in recent weeks, likely exacerbated by spam transactions, although updates have been deployed to address these challenges.

CoinMarketCap data indicates an 18.8% decline in the price of Solana over the past seven days, mirroring a broader downturn in the crypto market, with the GMCI 30 index, representing a selection of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, falling 13.79% amid investor caution following geopolitical tensions.

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In just three days, Bitcoin will undergo its next halving event, a significant occurrence in its price history. Scheduled approximately every four years, this event, ingrained in the cryptocurrency’s source code, aims to introduce anti-deflationary features to Bitcoin. While past halvings have contributed to price appreciation, the dynamics this time around might differ. Here’s what to consider.

At present, each block mined rewards miners with 6.25 new Bitcoins. Following the halving, this reward will halve to 3.125 BTC per block. In theory, this reduction should alleviate selling pressure on Bitcoin. Miners, who receive new BTC as rewards, often sell these tokens promptly, potentially decreasing daily token sales post-halving. This scenario could create a demand-supply imbalance, potentially driving prices upward. However, the market’s response is far more intricate.

Past halvings sparked debates and uncertainties. Some argued that market anticipation already factored in the halving’s effects, undermining its impact. However, history proved otherwise. Preceding each of the last three halvings, Bitcoin experienced minor price surges, followed by significant increases in the ensuing year, leading to new highs.

While this trend prevailed in the past, it’s not guaranteed for this halving. With previous halvings and market cycles informing investors, forecasts might be more accurate, potentially altering the usual cycle dynamics. Notably, BTC reached new all-time highs before the halving for the first time, possibly indicating investors pricing in the event’s impact beforehand, possibly influenced by factors like ETF approvals.

In this unprecedented market cycle stage, various outcomes are plausible, challenging investors’ ability to predict BTC’s trajectory post-halving. Only time will reveal the true impact of the upcoming halving on Bitcoin’s price.

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Bernstein, a brokerage firm, recommends purchasing stocks of bitcoin miners Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) and CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK) ahead of the impending halving event. They anticipate a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin post-halving, once mining hashrates adjust to reduced rewards and ETF inflows pick up.

Despite concerns over profitability following the halving, Bernstein maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin mining stocks, citing their potential for superior execution and market leadership in self-mining hashrate.

Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra highlight the historical trend of Bitcoin price breakout following halving events, with recent ETF approvals driving pre-halving price appreciation. However, recent fluctuations, including a 15% drop in the last 10 days, coincide with slower ETF inflows.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin’s bullish momentum to resume post-halving as mining hashrates adapt and ETF inflows recover. The rollout of spot bitcoin ETFs by wirehouses and registered investment advisors is seen as a structural driver for bitcoin demand, with a forecasted cycle high of $150,000 by 2025.

In summary, Bernstein suggests seizing the opportunity presented by the miner fear factor preceding the halving and investing in RIOT and CLSK stocks for potential long-term gains.

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With Bitcoin’s fourth mining reward halving imminent, Goldman Sachs urges investors to exercise caution in extrapolating past halving cycles for price predictions, emphasizing the role of macroeconomic conditions and inflows into spot ETFs.

While previous halvings have historically coincided with Bitcoin price appreciation, Goldman’s Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team warns against simplistic interpretations due to varying macroeconomic landscapes.

Despite bullish sentiments surrounding previous halvings, the time taken to reach peak prices and the magnitude of price increases differed significantly across cycles.

Crucially, the macroeconomic backdrop during previous halvings contrasted with the current environment characterized by high inflation and interest rates. Previous cycles occurred amid rapid growth in M2 money supply and near-zero interest rates, fostering risk-taking behavior across financial markets.

For history to repeat itself, supportive macroeconomic conditions are deemed essential.

However, present circumstances diverge from past cycles, notably with interest rates in the U.S. surpassing 5% and market expectations discounting prospects of rate cuts amid persistent inflation and economic resilience.

Despite Bitcoin’s 50% rally this year and record highs preceding the halving, driven by inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs, some analysts speculate that much of the post-halving surge may have already materialized.

Goldman views the halving as a “psychological reminder” of Bitcoin’s capped supply, emphasizing the significance of ETF uptake in determining medium-term price outlook.

The team suggests that whether the halving event leads to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario may have a limited impact on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory. Instead, they highlight ongoing supply-demand dynamics and ETF demand as primary drivers of spot price action in the crypto markets.

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The resurgence of digital assets in mainstream finance brings attention to Bitcoin automated teller machines (BTMs), with experts cautioning against the financial risks inherent in these machines, particularly in areas predominantly inhabited by Black and Latino residents.

BTMs, physical kiosks facilitating crypto conversions, have proliferated, especially during the pandemic, reaching approximately 31,100 units nationwide. However, investigations into the BTM boom reveal a disproportionate presence in Black and Latino neighborhoods, coupled with exorbitant transaction fees of up to 22%.

Bitcoin Depot, the leading US operator with around 7,300 BTMs as of April 8th, boasts high fees despite promoting financial inclusion. According to a November 2023 presentation, over 80% of Bitcoin Depot’s customers earn less than $80,000 annually. However, critics liken the high fees to predatory lending practices.

Despite claims of non-discriminatory placement, a Bloomberg analysis indicates a correlation between Bitcoin Depot’s BTM locations and areas with large Black and Latino populations, particularly in states like Georgia and Texas.

While some BTMs operate in major stores like Circle K and Cumberland Farms, local businesses often host them, with operators either paying rent or providing a monthly stipend to the store owners.

Transaction fees vary, with some BTMs charging flat rates plus a percentage fee. Critics dubbed this practice “predatory inclusion,” akin to payday lending, targeting marginalized communities.

In states like Alabama and Dallas, BTM placement aligns with higher concentrations of Black and Latino residents, raising concerns about equity and accessibility.

Bitcoin Depot’s CEO, Brandon Mintz, defends the fee structure, citing operating expenses and convenience as key factors. However, competitors CoinFlip and Bitstop also impose steep fees, up to 22%.

Despite the limited utility of BTMs for selling crypto, Bitcoin Depot eyes expansion, awaiting approval for operations in New York, a potential market expected to boost the company’s size significantly.

Critics like Aaron Klein from the Brookings Institution caution against the proliferation of BTMs, highlighting their limited functionality and the risks associated with crypto investments.

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Kraken, the second-largest U.S.-based crypto exchange, has unveiled its own crypto wallet, joining the ranks of competitors such as Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) and MetaMask in the saturated market.

The newly launched self-custodial “Kraken Wallet,” debuting on Wednesday, offers support for eight blockchains including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin. Notably, it is the first wallet from a major exchange to be open-sourced, allowing developers to access and contribute to the code. Kraken also incentivizes developers to identify vulnerabilities through its open-source grant program.

Focused on user privacy, Kraken Wallet collects minimal data necessary for functionality, shielding IP addresses and protecting users’ identity and location information. This emphasis aligns with the principles of the crypto space, emphasizing self-custody and privacy.

While Coinbase’s Coinbase Wallet remains popular, other major exchanges like Binance and OKX also offer wallets integrated into their ecosystems. Kraken’s move into the wallet space reflects its commitment to providing users with access to on-chain ecosystems and maintaining a user-centric approach.

Kraken has been expanding its product offerings, including discussions with layer 2 teams to explore building its own layer 2 blockchain. The development of Kraken Wallet underscores the importance of self-custody in the crypto ecosystem, particularly in light of the risks associated with leaving assets on centralized exchanges highlighted by past incidents such as the collapse of FTX crypto exchange in 2022.

Eric Kuhn, Product Director for Kraken Wallet, emphasized the significance of the “your keys, your crypto” ethos and expressed Kraken’s commitment to building the best all-in-one crypto wallet that is open-source, secure, and private.

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