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Seven months into 2024, it has still been a good year for the stock market, but the sands shifted under investors’ feet during July, as a “Great Rotation” began.
On Wednesday, MarketWatch’s Joseph Adinolfi summed up the July stock-market action, explaining how the expectation of a change in Federal Reserve policy helped push investors away from the largest technology stocks. He also discussed how likely the rally for value stocks and small-cap stocks was to continue.
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An economic adviser to Donald Trump said Thursday that he’ll counsel Trump to prioritize increased energy production and making 2017’s tax cuts permanent — plus one issue that the GOP platform skates around.
“I liked the platform, but there’s not much talk about fiscal responsibility and cutting government spending, so I’d like to see more of an emphasis on that than in the first term,” said Stephen Moore, a senior visiting fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation.
“I think Biden has a much worse record on the debt than Trump does, but Trump in some ways could be a big spender himself, so I hope that he becomes more fiscally conscious,” Moore told MarketWatch, while speaking on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Jason Trennert, CEO and chairman of Strategas Securities, expressed a similar hopeful sentiment, when asked if he expects Trump would be different in a second term after not being much of a fiscal hawk in his first term.
“I do, simply because of the starting point. We’re starting at a much more precarious time right now,” Trennert said, as he also spoke on the sidelines of the GOP convention. Trennert noted the national debt was under $20 trillion when Trump came into office in 2017, but it’s now nearly $35 trillion.
Regarding the increase in the debt, the Strategas CEO said a “not insignificant part of that was COVID.”
“But the spending that’s been taking place after COVID has ended — you’re looking at budget deficits that are enormous, so that’s why I’m hopeful that the new administration would focus more on this,” he told MarketWatch.
From MarketWatch’s archives (April 2020): How the U.S. government is spending trillions in response to the COVID crisis — in one chart
The 2024 platform from Trump and his fellow Republicans, which was released last week, makes references to slashing or “reining in” wasteful spending, but otherwise disappointed some fiscal hawks. A column from the National Review, a conservative magazine, said the GOP platform was “discouraging” for anyone worried about the ballooning debt and its implications.
A report last year from the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, estimated that the legislation and executive actions signed by Trump added $7.8 trillion in 10-year budget deficits.
Read on:
‘Absurd’ to think Trump’s policies would be inflationary, says possible Treasury pick
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J.D. Vance has become a big name again in the publishing and film worlds.
After former President Donald Trump named Ohio’s junior senator as his running mate on the 2024 Republican ticket, Vance climbed to the top of Amazon’s bestsellers list
AMZN,
Earlier in the week, “Hillbilly Elegy” ranked 220th on that list, according to the Associated Press.
Also, the 2020 Netflix
NFLX,
At least one book-industry expert predicts this is just the start of what’s to come for the 39-year-old author-turned-politician, who is also a former venture capitalist and protégé of tech investor Peter Thiel.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Vance outsells Stephen King this year,” said Allen Salkin, an author and co-owner of the New Books Network, a podcast production company that focuses on the publishing world.
Salkin noted that Harper, the publisher of “Hillbilly Elegy,” is in a comfortable position to promote the title, since it’s already made a sizable profit on it. Sales of the book have topped 1.6 million copies.
Harper “is playing with house money now, the best possible position to profit more,” Salkin said, noting that he could see copies being purchased and held out for Vance to sign at rallies in the days and weeks ahead.
Harper is the flagship imprint of publisher HarperCollins, which is part of News Corp
NWS,
From the archives (March 2024): Trump running mate in 2016 and 2020 Mike Pence tells Fox News he won’t endorse Trump
Vance has already reportedly made a sizable sum from “Hillbilly Elegy.” In 2021 — five years after the book’s publication date — Vance earned nearly $500,000 in royalties, according to published reports. And there’s no word as to what he may have collected for the Netflix film rights.
Perhaps just as important, the book made Vance a national name and propelled him to his current political career.
On social media, many commenters said they were eager to learn more about Vance. A few noted they had watched the film version of “Hillbilly Elegy” upon learning of Vance’s appointment by Trump or were planning to read the book.
Vance explained why he thought “Hillbilly Elegy” became so popular in a 2016 interview with the Wall Street Journal: “I think it speaks to a couple of things: first, that people are really curious about the anger and frustration of the white working class; second, that members of the white working class have been hungry to have someone tell their story.”
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What do you all think about employees who work from home and have little kids to watch at the same time? A family member just got a work-from-home job and she is allowed to watch her 3 1/2-year-old at the same time. They said as long as her productivity doesn’t suffer she can watch her kids. It would be difficult for mom, child and employer, I would suspect.
How does this even work? I’m not jealous — just genuinely curious.
Family Member
Work more, judge less.
If your relative is able to raise her child and successfully work from home with her employer’s blessing, looking over her shoulder will only take time away from your own work day and productivity. Don’t underestimate your relative’s ability to juggle more than one thing at a time. Her employer certainly doesn’t seem to underestimate her. Why should you?
A happy employee is a productive one. There are just as many workers – with and without kids — who sit in offices and give a veneer of high productivity, but spend their days browsing Facebook, shopping online or taking their sweet time with their latest project. Research also suggests on-site employees are not necessarily as productive as remote workers.
As Bob Thaves noted of Fred Astaire in one of his “Frank and Ernest” cartoons: “Sure he was great, but don’t forget that Ginger Rogers did everything he did … backwards and in high heels.” Women have long been raising kids, caring for elderly family members, keeping track of school and hospital appointments, shopping for groceries, cooking dinner and, yes, working.
A recent study, “The R.O.I. of Caregiving Benefits,” published by The Fifth Trimester and Vivvi, both of which aim to help caregiving employees, surveyed 300 employees and carried out 10 case studies of working mothers. The study concluded that every $1 invested in caregiving benefits drives $18.93, for a nearly 18-fold return on investment.
“As working parents become more emboldened to push for caregiving benefits — 83% of women and 81% of men with children ages 0-5 said that child care support would be an important factor in whether they’d stay or switch employers — the time is ripe to reframe the cultural narrative around support for caregivers in the workforce,” the researchers wrote.
Some 67% of respondents said they’ve considered leaving their job in the last year, and 42% of those who stayed said their employers supported their caregiving needs. What’s more, 59% said that if they had backup or subsidized child care, they would be likely to stay put for at least four years — 14 months longer than the average millennial tenure.
Among the report’s key findings: Caregiving benefits drive an inclusive culture and increase retention; family benefits are now a hiring imperative; these benefits unleash parents’ leadership potential; and parent-friendly practices boost productivity. In fact, other data found that remote work leads to gains in productivity of up to 24% “if managers are well-trained for it.”
The number of people working from home varies, depending on the industry, country, and, yes, study. But since the pandemic, millions of workers realized they can work just as productively from their kitchen table a few days a week, while avoiding the stress and expense of a commute, and the perception that they must be 100% productive if they are “seen.”
Recent data published by the commercial-real-estate agency Knight Frank concluded that office occupancy was lowest on the West Coast — with rates hovering around 30%— versus 50% on the East Coast. It’s also much lower than the 55% to 65% occupancy rate in Western Europe, or the 85% to 90% rate in China, Hong Kong and Japan.
One reason that may partly explain this phenomenon: Child care costs more than a monthly mortgage payment or rent in almost every state in the U.S. Child Care Aware of America, an organization dedicated to helping working parents, found that the national average price of child care for 2023 was $11,582 a year — or $965 a month. Your friend is saving a packet.
The average office worker appears to be able to work from home two to three days per week. Obviously, it’s important to distinguish between white-collar workers and factory workers, service workers, retail employees and transportation workers — all of whom don’t have the same luxury to work from home. It’s a post-pandemic perk that is not available to everyone.
Be happy for your relative who is raising her child and holding down a full-time job that she appears to enjoy. Celebrate her. Support her. Call her up and tell her how proud you are of her. Ask her if she needs a babysitter from time to time. She might be glad of a break to socialize with friends, go on a date or even see a new release at the cinema. Just don’t judge her.
She’s doing everything you do — while looking backwards at a demanding three-year-old in the same room.
More columns from Quentin Fottrell:
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Oil futures climbed on Thursday to settle at fresh seven-week highs on the back of weekly declines in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, as rising geopolitical tensions lifted concerns about disruptions to global supply chains.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels for the week ended June 14, after posting two consecutive weekly gains, according to data from the Energy Information Administration released Thursday. The data came out a day later than usual due…
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My husband and I currently have $200,000 in an emergency fund, and I have it in a high-yield savings account at our credit union. I like this very much because I have a personal relationship with our bank staff, which is helpful when we have a unique need.
I like how easy it is for me to transfer funds from our other accounts into our HYSA. The downside is that the APY is 3.75%, which seems a little bit lower than other accounts I see advertised, though those seem to mostly be available through online banks.
I am very new to learning more about financial management. My husband does all our finances beyond the discretionary-spending account and our emergency fund. My husband and I have eight kids, and rely solely on his income to support our family.
As you can see, I have aimed high for our emergency fund. If something were to happen to my husband or his job, we could access money pretty quickly. For that reason I am leery about doing something that would lock up those funds or come with restrictions.
Where is the best place to put our emergency fund so it keeps up with inflation but is readily available if we need to access it?
Wife, Mother & Saver
You’re beating inflation by the skin of your teeth.
Given that you are raising eight children, you are more than qualified and entitled to be part of your household’s saving and investment decisions. That should be a 50/50 proposition between you and your husband. You may need to express your own joys or concerns about your finances. Never discount the contribution you have to offer.
I agree with you on two counts: First, it’s great to have a personal relationship with your local bank or credit union, and second, your interest rate is relatively low compared with the average annual percentage yield on high-yield savings accounts. You could, if you looked around, get as much as 5.30%.
Don’t be put off by online banks. Just make sure the institution has insurance through the National Credit Union Administration or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Both are U.S. government agencies that protect deposits up to $250,000 per depositor. So if you had $500,000, you would want to deposit half of that either in accounts in different ownership categories or in different banks.
FDIC insurance covers most deposit accounts, although it does not cover investment accounts. Credit-union accounts are covered by the NCUA.
Joseph J. Lebel III, president and chief operating officer at OceanFirst Bank, recommends that you think about your long-term savings and investment goals. Inflation, like income tax, can rob you of money, he adds, whether it’s in a 401(k), an exchange-traded fund, mutual fund or money-market fund.
The latter invest in short-term securities issued by governments and corporations; some of the most popular funds include Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund, JPMorgan Prime Money Market Fund and Fidelity Money Market Fund, and currently have annual percentage yield, or APY, of 5% or above.
“The good news is, consumers today have some interest rates that allow them to see a real return with very little risk in money funds or bank products such as CDs or high-yield accounts that are liquid, safe and easy to understand,” he says.
“Even with such a large family, $200,000 is a healthy emergency fund.”
With inflation at 3.4% in April — down from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022 — you may wish to consider shorter-duration bonds, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds with a maturity of less than five years, in addition to high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit (where you can get an APY of 5%).
Even with such a large family, $200,000 is a healthy emergency fund. Further down the line, you may want to look into Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, and keep diversification front and center. (You can currently get a return of 5.15% on a U.S. 1 Year Treasury Bill.)
Health savings accounts allow you to save money in a tax-advantaged account and withdraw it tax-free for qualified medical expenses. You can also use that cash to reduce your out-of-pocket medical expenses in retirement.
That is one way to build up a medical nest egg, depending on how much of the funds in the account you use during your or your husband’s working life. For 2024, individuals with a high-deductible health plan have an annual HSA contribution limit of $4,150. The HSA contribution limit for family coverage is $8,300.
The Roth IRA contribution limit for 2024 is $7,000 per person, with an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution for people who are 50 and older. Tax filers who are married and filing jointly must have a modified adjusted gross income under $240,000 in 2024.
Many women run their household’s finances: Some 59% of non-single women are in charge of making household financial decisions, up from 48% in 2023, and 31% make financial decisions with their partners, down from 37%, according to research from GoBankingRates.com.
But women still have a long way to go in corporate America. Just over 10% of CEOs of Fortune 500 companies are women. Women CEOs just crossed that 10% threshold last year, with a quarter of the 52 female CEOS taking over the reins at their companies last year.
Financial independence starts and ends not only with knowing where your money is being invested, but with having agency over where that money is invested. When it comes to finances, your husband may not necessarily be the smartest person in the room.
More columns from Quentin Fottrell:
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Walter Medina, 31, found himself demoralized when he tried to buy his first home.
Medina and his wife began looking for homes in suburban Maryland in January, keen on landing something quick because their apartment lease was ending soon. Their budget was between $400,000 and $425,000, and the couple planned to put down 3% of the home’s purchase price.
High mortgage rates didn’t spook Medina, even if they meant taking on a 30-year loan at a 6.8% interest rate. The process of actually finding a house and signing the contract, he said, was the painful part.
After attending around 15 open houses, the couple put down five offers, all of which fell through. “I just remember the first one. It felt like we were getting crushed,” Medina said. The home was listed at $395,000, so the couple offered $405,000. The buyer ended up going with an all-cash offer of $400,000 that came with no contingencies.
Bid after bid, buyers with deeper pockets kept beating out Medina and his wife. “There was one where they went [$40,000] over asking,” Medina recalled. “It was extremely competitive.”
Over a third of home purchases in February were made with all cash, according to a Redfin analysis. “In many places, wealthy Americans are the only ones who can afford to buy homes,” said Chen Zhao, the brokerage’s economics research lead.
But the couple’s efforts eventually paid off with their sixth bid, and they closed on their home March 5.
Medina’s experience illustrates how competitive and expensive the U.S. housing market has become for first-time home buyers, particularly millennials.
It’s also a tale of perseverance and success. Millennials, the largest generation in the U.S., are the country’s dominant home buyers today, according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest annual report on generational trends in home buyers and sellers. And their demand for homes to buy is likely to only intensify in the years to come, based on industry forecasts and analyses of demographic trends.
To be sure, older generations still have the upper hand in the housing market.
“Sellers have lived in their homes for a long period of time, and they’ve gained a lot of housing equity,” Jessica Lautz, the deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, told MarketWatch. So when they’re buying homes, they can pull out all the stops and pay for a home with cash.
“But millennials found a way to enter into the market,” Lautz added.
After a brief period last year when millennials lost the title of the dominant home-buying generation to baby boomers, they have taken back the title, the new NAR report found. Millennials made up 38% of home buyers, the largest group by generation, followed by boomers at 31% and Gen X at 24%.
First-time buyers made up 32% of all home buyers, the NAR said. Younger millennials in particular made “huge strides in becoming a first-time home buyer,” Lautz said; about 17% of home buyers were younger millennials.
In fact, the 2023 surge by boomers was a blip, as millennials have made steady gains in homeownership and have outpaced their elders every year since 2014, aside from last year, Lautz said.
But with boomers seeing a sharp increase in home values and equity, they remain a formidable home-buying force. Over the next few years, there will be a tug-of-war between the two largest generations as to which will dominate the market, Lautz said.
At the other end of the spectrum, the youngest generation of home buyers — who generally have less wealth given their age — are making strong progress towards homeownership. Even though Gen Z made up the smallest share of home buyers, at 3%, women of that generation have made significant headway toward homeownership, NAR’s data showed.
Overall, 20% of recent home buyers were single women, and Gen Z made up the highest share of single women buyers, the NAR said, at 31%.
Jasmine Wells, a 24-year-old active-duty servicemember, was one of those new, single homeowners.
After learning in January 2022 that she would be stationed in South Carolina, Wells bought her first home there. She decided to buy after seeing how much cheaper it was to own rather than rent.
“When I was looking at apartments, I saw that to get an apartment in a nice area, it was something like $1,800 a month,” Wells told MarketWatch in an interview. “I felt that it was like a really good idea for me to purchase a home.”
She found from her supervisor that there was a company that works with people in the Army, like her. The company then assigned her a specific real-estate agent during the house-hunting process, but that arrangement wasn’t working for her: The offers she submitted were falling through. She found her own agent and they looked at more homes, including newly constructed ones.
In May 2022, she found her target, and two months later, she closed on the newly built home for $300,000 with a mortgage backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. She has a mortgage rate of 4.5%.
“My goal was to create generational wealth,” Wells said. “My mom talked to me a lot about how long she waited to purchase a home … and she completely regretted not purchasing it sooner to build generational wealth.”
When it comes to selling homes, there’s no doubt about it — baby boomers are the dominant generation.
Younger baby boomers in particular made up the largest share of home sellers, at 26%, NAR said. The median seller was 64 and earned a median income of $103,000.
Gen X made up the second-largest share of sellers, at 23%.
The most common reason homeowners cited for selling their house was to move closer to family and friends, according to the NAR. Other reasons included their home being too small and their family situation changing.
The typical homeowner lived in their house for 10 years before selling. That number has stayed the same over the past few years, but before the Great Recession, people used to move every six or seven years on average, Lautz said.
Tenure also varied widely by age group: Younger millennials typically stayed in their homes for four years, while sellers ages 59 and older stayed for 15 years.
One possible explanation for people staying in their homes for longer after the recession is that they “may think of their house in a different type of way,” Lautz said. People find staying in one place for a longer period of time to afford stability, and also allow them to build more equity in their home.
“But they may also have a lower interest rate, or [may] have purchased a larger home,” she added, “so this gives them some stability that they don’t have to make a housing trade.”
How have home prices and mortgage rates affected you? We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.
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Oil futures edged lower early Monday, failing to hold gains seen after upbeat China data.
Oil futures were buoyed in Asian trading hours after China’s official purchasing managers index, or PMI, for the manufacturing sector rose from 49.1 in February to 50.8 in March. The PMI is on a scale up to 100, where 50 marks the cutoff between expansion and contraction. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
The data “comes after the surprising and very positive growth in industrial production in February, while this set of positive figures reinforces hope that the manufacturing sector will be able to restore solid growth, which will be one of the most important factors to support oil prices this year,” said Samer Hasn, market analyst at XS.com, in a note.
Traders are returning from a three-day holiday, with futures trading closed on Good Friday. WTI booked a gain of around 16% in the first quarter. Brent rose nearly 14%, supported by production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and optimism over the economic outlook.